Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Monxter Store Championship
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.5%
avg ELO -10.1 per match
expected value
39.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1181
· median 1181
· range 1177–1186
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1168
Q3 1280
1465
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.2% | -18.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
